Both teams to score
Yes54%
ours 1.85
No46%
ours 2.17
All matches
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Ballymena United — Bangor, NIFL Premiership
Northern Ireland, NIFL Premiership
Ballymena United
1.1WWDDL
Bangor
1.2LLWLD
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
53%22%25%
Ballymena United53%Draw22%Bangor25%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Ballymena United1.88—
XDraw4.51—
2Bangor4.07—
our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricBallymena UnitedBangorCombined
Goals scored0.671.001.67
Conceded0.171.001.17
Corners8.08.08.0
Cards1.01.02.0
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
Ballymena UnitedBangor
Ballymena United FC 53%, Bangor FC 25%. The safest is “No draw” at 76%.
Ballymena United FC 53%Draw 22%Bangor FC 25%
1st half
38 · 38 · 24
2nd half
35 · 39 · 26
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Total goals: Over 1.5
71%
Two more scenarios — with a subscription
Form and context
Ballymena United
- awayCliftonville1:0
- homePortadown2:0
- awayDungannon Swifts1:1
- homeCarrick Rangers1:1
- awayColeraine2:3
Bangor
- homeColeraine2:3
- awayCrusaders1:2
- homePortadown3:1
- awayLimavady United1:3
- awayGlentoran1:1
Head to head
- 09/05/26NIFL Premiership2:2
- 04/15/26NIFL Premiership0:0
- 12/30/25NIFL Premiership0:2
- 11/08/25NIFL Premiership3:2
- 08/23/25NIFL Premiership4:0
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
6
Carrick Rangers1041515:1513
Carrick Rangers1041515:15137
Dungannon Swifts94149:1013
Dungannon Swifts94149:10138Ballymena United933313:1112
Ballymena United933313:11129
Cliftonville1040612:1212
Cliftonville1040612:121210
Limavady United93159:1310
Limavady United93159:131011Bangor1012710:225
Bangor1012710:22512
Portadown100287:212
Portadown100287:212Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with a subscription
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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.