All matches

Linfield — Dungannon Swifts, NIFL Premiership

Northern Ireland, NIFL Premiership

Linfield
3.0WWDWW
—
Dungannon Swifts
1.7LDLLW
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Outcome probability
64%20%16%
Linfield64%Draw20%Dungannon Swifts16%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Linfield64%1.57—
XDraw20%4.95—
2Dungannon Swifts16%6.14—

our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes52%

ours 1.93

No48%

ours 2.08

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricLinfieldDungannon SwiftsCombined
Goals scored0.670.170.84
Conceded0.171.001.17
Corners8.012.010.0
Cards2.01.73.7
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.

LinfieldDungannon Swifts

Linfield FC 64%, Dungannon Swifts FC 16%. The safest is “Linfield FC or draw” at 80%.

Linfield FC 64%Draw 20%Dungannon Swifts FC 16%
1st half
41 · 39 · 20
2nd half
41 · 37 · 22
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Total goals: Over 1.5

71%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Linfield

  • awayColeraine3:1
  • homeCrusaders1:0
  • awayPortadown1:1
  • awayDungannon Swifts1:0
  • homeCarrick Rangers1:0

Dungannon Swifts

  • awayGlentoran0:2
  • homeBallymena United1:1
  • awayCrusaders0:3
  • homeLinfield0:1
  • awayLimavady United2:0

Head to head

  • 09/12/26NIFL Premiership1:0
  • 05/12/26NIFL Premiership3:1
  • 04/07/26NIFL Premiership3:1
  • 02/17/26NIFL Premiership4:1
  • 02/10/26NIFL Premiership6:0

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1Coleraine1081122:1025
2Linfield971112:622
3Larne651012:316
4Glentoran1051415:1016
5Crusaders1050515:1815
6Carrick Rangers1041515:1513
7Dungannon Swifts94149:1013
8Ballymena United933313:1112
9Cliftonville1040612:1212

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.