IFK Göteborg — Djurgårdens IF, Allsvenskan

Sweden, AllsvenskanOctober 28 at 06:00 PM

IFK Göteborg

2.0WWWWD

—

Djurgårdens IF

2.8LWWWW

Outcome probability

292447

IFK Göteborg29%Draw24%Djurgårdens IF47%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1IFK Göteborg29%3.46—

XDraw24%4.20—

2Djurgårdens IF47%2.11—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes52%

ours 1.93

No48%

ours 2.08

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricIFK GöteborgDjurgårdens IFCombined

Goals scored1.170.331.50

Conceded0.330.330.66

Corners15.310.012.7

Cards1.72.03.7

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
IFK GöteborgDjurgårdens IF
9Table position3
3.2Days of rest4.1
58.20%Possession51.20%
2Matches in 14 days2
2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
Djurgårdens IF travel as favourites: despite playing away, a win is rated at 47%.
Most likely scorelines:…
3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pick
Risky pick
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