All matches

AIK Fotboll — IFK Göteborg, Allsvenskan

Sweden, Allsvenskan

AIK Fotboll
2.4LLDWW
—
IFK Göteborg
2.0WWWWD
Outcome probability
402436
AIK Fotboll40%Draw24%IFK Göteborg36%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1AIK Fotboll40%2.49—
XDraw24%4.13—
2IFK Göteborg36%2.81—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes57%

ours 1.75

No43%

ours 2.33

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricAIK FotbollIFK GöteborgCombined
Goals scored0.831.502.33
Conceded1.330.501.83
Corners8.815.212.0
Cards1.81.83.5
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    AIK FotbollIFK Göteborg
    35.30%Possession41.30%
    8Table position9
    7.1Days of rest7.9
    1Matches in 14 days1
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    Home advantage and current form favour AIK Fotboll: a home win is rated at 40%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Total goals: Under 3.5

69%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

AIK Fotboll

  • awayHalmstads BK1:2
  • homeVästerås SK Fotboll1:4
  • awayMalmö FF0:0
  • homeHammarby IF3:2
  • awayDjurgårdens IF3:1

IFK Göteborg

  • awayIF Brommapojkarna1:0
  • homeHalmstads BK2:1
  • awayMjällby AIF4:1
  • homeÖrgryte IS1:0
  • homeIF Elfsborg1:1

Head to head

  • 07/05/26Allsvenskan2:1
  • 08/17/25Allsvenskan1:2
  • 06/29/25Allsvenskan3:0
  • 10/21/24Allsvenskan2:1
  • 05/27/24Allsvenskan5:2

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
6Västerås SK Fotboll22105734:3535
7Malmö FF22103937:3333
8AIK Fotboll2195730:3332
9IFK Göteborg2295831:4132
10GAIS2186728:1830
11IF Brommapojkarna2276930:3627

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.