All matches

GAIS — IFK Göteborg, Allsvenskan

Sweden, Allsvenskan

GAIS
2.4WDWLL
—
IFK Göteborg
2.0WWWWD
Outcome probability
492427
GAIS49%Draw24%IFK Göteborg27%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1GAIS49%2.05—
XDraw24%4.14—
2IFK Göteborg27%3.70—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes44%

ours 2.25

No56%

ours 1.80

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricGAISIFK GöteborgCombined
Goals scored1.171.332.50
Conceded0.000.330.33
Corners8.015.511.8
Cards1.31.83.1
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    GAISIFK Göteborg
    59.30%Possession50.00%
    6.9Days of rest7.9
    10Table position9
    1Matches in 14 days1
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    GAIS look the favourite on home turf and current form — a home win is rated at 49%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Total corners: Over 9.5

70%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

GAIS

  • awayMjällby AIF3:0
  • homeBK Häcken0:0
  • homeIF Brommapojkarna4:0
  • awayHammarby IF0:2
  • homeMalmö FF0:1

IFK Göteborg

  • awayIF Brommapojkarna1:0
  • homeHalmstads BK2:1
  • awayMjällby AIF4:1
  • homeÖrgryte IS1:0
  • homeIF Elfsborg1:1

Head to head

  • 04/26/26Allsvenskan2:2
  • 08/11/25Allsvenskan0:1
  • 04/28/25Allsvenskan1:1
  • 09/30/24Allsvenskan0:2
  • 05/06/24Allsvenskan2:1

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
7Malmö FF22103937:3333
8AIK Fotboll2195730:3332
9IFK Göteborg2295831:4132
10GAIS2186728:1830
11IF Brommapojkarna2276930:3627
12Mjällby AIF21561026:3721

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.