All matches

Hammarby IF — Djurgårdens IF, Allsvenskan

Sweden, Allsvenskan

Hammarby IF
2.9WWDLW
—
Djurgårdens IF
2.8LWWWW
Outcome probability
502326
Hammarby IF50%Draw23%Djurgårdens IF26%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Hammarby IF50%1.98—
XDraw23%4.31—
2Djurgårdens IF26%3.80—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes51%

ours 1.97

No49%

ours 2.03

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricHammarby IFDjurgårdens IFCombined
Goals scored2.171.834.00
Conceded0.830.331.16
Corners9.57.68.6
Cards1.21.42.6
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    Hammarby IFDjurgårdens IF
    2Table position3
    62.50%Possession43.80%
    14Days of rest14
    0Matches in 14 days0
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    Hammarby IF look the favourite on home turf and current form — a home win is rated at 50%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Total goals: Under 3.5

70%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Hammarby IF

  • awayDegerfors1:0
  • homeIF Brommapojkarna3:1
  • awayÖrgryte IS1:1
  • awayAIK Fotboll2:3
  • homeGAIS2:0

Djurgårdens IF

  • homeIF Elfsborg1:2
  • awayKalmar FF1:0
  • awayMjällby AIF2:0
  • homeMjällby AIF4:0
  • awayMalmö FF3:0

Head to head

  • 04/26/26Allsvenskan1:1
  • 09/14/25Allsvenskan3:3
  • 04/13/25Allsvenskan2:0
  • 10/21/24Allsvenskan2:0
  • 06/02/24Allsvenskan3:0

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1IK Sirius Fotboll21153350:2848
2Hammarby IF22134549:2043
3Djurgårdens IF21122745:2138
4IF Elfsborg22107531:2237
5BK Häcken2299439:3036

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.