IFK Göteborg — Västerås SK Fotboll, Allsvenskan

Sweden, AllsvenskanOctober 9 at 05:00 PM

IFK Göteborg

2.0WWWWD

—

Västerås SK Fotboll

1.5WWLWD

Outcome probability

452431

IFK Göteborg45%Draw24%Västerås SK Fotboll31%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1IFK Göteborg45%2.20—

XDraw24%4.18—

2Västerås SK Fotboll31%3.26—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes54%

ours 1.84

No46%

ours 2.19

Over 2.5 goals

This market opens with a subscription.

See plans

Over 9.5 corners

This market opens with a subscription.

See plans

Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricIFK GöteborgVästerås SK FotbollCombined

Goals scored1.501.503.00

Conceded1.001.002.00

Corners15.38.211.8

Cards1.51.73.2

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

The other six metrics — with a subscription

Free full access for 3 days when you sign up

Start free Plans

Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
IFK GöteborgVästerås SK Fotboll
9Table position6
51.30%Possession44.30%
14Days of rest14
0Matches in 14 days0
2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
IFK Göteborg look the favourite on home turf and current form — a home win is rated at 45%.
Most likely scorelines:…
3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pick
Risky pick
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
Free full access for 3 days when you sign up
Start free Plans