Djurgårdens IF — Örgryte IS, Allsvenskan

Sweden, AllsvenskanOctober 24 at 03:30 PM

Djurgårdens IF

2.8LWWWW

—

Örgryte IS

1.4LLDLD

Outcome probability

7116

Djurgårdens IF71%Draw16%Örgryte IS13%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1Djurgårdens IF71%1.40—

XDraw16%6.18—

2Örgryte IS13%7.98—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes47%

ours 2.12

No53%

ours 1.89

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricDjurgårdens IFÖrgryte ISCombined

Goals scored0.670.501.17

Conceded0.331.331.66

Corners7.710.89.2

Cards2.00.02.0

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
Djurgårdens IFÖrgryte IS
3Table position15
7.9Days of rest6
58.70%Possession46.00%
2Matches in 14 days2
2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
Home advantage and current form favour Djurgårdens IF: a home win is rated at 71%.
Most likely scorelines:…
3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pick
Risky pick
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