Both teams to score
Yes49%
ours 2.04
No51%
ours 1.96
All matches
Getafe — Atletico Madrid, La Liga
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
18%27%55%
Getafe18%Draw27%Atletico Madrid55%
Most confident forecast72% of such answers came in · 60 days
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Model vs market
Our probability against the market’s — the bookmaker price with its margin removed. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Getafe5.67—
XDraw3.70—
2Atletico Madrid1.81—
our modelmarket — bookmaker price, margin removed
Quick markets
The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.
Over 2.5 goals
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Over 9.5 corners
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Goals and corners — with Premium
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Combos
Combos come with Premium: result and total, result and corners, both teams to score and total — probability, fair odds and the market comparison.
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Confident answers
The line where the model is closest to 72% — and how often such answers have come in.
Goals
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72%of such answers on goals came inlast 60 days · 3725 matches
Corners
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71%of such answers on corners came inlast 60 days · 3714 matches
Cards
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71%of such answers on cards came inlast 60 days · 3703 matches
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This is a probability, not a guarantee: roughly 3 answers in 10 don’t come in. Bookmaker odds on these lines are low — this block is about the model’s accuracy.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
GetafeAtletico Madrid
Getafe Club de Fútbol 18%, Club Atlético de Madrid 55%. The safest is “Club Atlético de Madrid or draw” at 82%.
Getafe Club de Fútbol 18%Draw 27%Club Atlético de Madrid 55%
1st half
18 · 46 · 35
2nd half
19 · 34 · 47
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
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More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Total goals: Over 1.5
69%
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Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricGetafeAtletico MadridCombined
Goals scored0.801.402.20
Conceded
Corners
Cards
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Insights
What to know before the match: recent games, the table, head-to-head. Only facts from played matches — no model opinions.
Getafe- Conceded in every one of the last 5 matches14 goals conceded
- Fewest shots on target in the league — 2.5 per match20 teams in the league
- Winless in 5 matches0:4, 2:5, 1:1, 1:1, 0:3
Atletico Madrid- 3 clean sheets in the last 51:0, 1:1, 1:0, 2:0, 2:1
- Unbeaten in 8 matches1:0, 1:1, 1:0, 2:0, 2:1
- Unbeaten away in 4 matches1:1, 1:0, 2:1, 3:0, 1:2
Based on played matches of the current season and recent games. A fact is shown only when it stands out from the usual.
Form and context
Getafe
- awayAthletic Bilbao0:4
- homeLugano2:5
- homeRayo Vallecano1:1
- awayUniversitatea Craiova1:1
- awayBarcelona0:3
Atletico Madrid
- homeDeportivo La Coruna1:0
- awayStuttgart1:1
- awayEspanyol1:0
- homeManchester United2:0
- awayAlaves2:1
Head to head
- 03/14/26La Liga0:1
- 11/23/25La Liga0:1
- 03/09/25La Liga2:1
- 12/15/24La Liga0:1
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
More matches in this competition
Spain, La Liga: upcoming and recently played.
Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.