Both teams to score
Yes59%
ours 1.70
No41%
ours 2.43
All matches
—
Lugano — Basel, Super League
Switzerland, Super League
Lugano
3.1WWDWW
Basel
2.1LWLLD
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
57%23%20%
Lugano57%Draw23%Basel20%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Lugano1.77—
XDraw4.28—
2Basel5.01—
our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricLuganoBaselCombined
Goals scored1.331.172.50
Conceded0.171.671.84
Corners8.510.09.3
Cards3.02.35.3
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
Free full access for 3 days when you sign up
Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
LuganoBasel
FC Lugano 57%, FC Basel 1893 20%. The safest is “FC Lugano or draw” at 77%.
FC Lugano 57%Draw 23%FC Basel 1893 20%
1st half
41 · 38 · 21
2nd half
39 · 35 · 26
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Second half total: Under 2.5
72%
Two more scenarios — with a subscription
Form and context
Lugano
- awayLausanne4:0
- homeSt. Gallen4:1
- homeYoung Boys2:2
- awayBasel3:1
- homeServette1:0
Basel
- homeSt. Gallen1:3
- awayLuzern4:2
- homeLugano1:3
- homeSion1:2
- awayYoung Boys3:3
Head to head
- 09/06/26Super League3:1
- 05/17/26Super League4:0
- 02/15/26Super League1:1
- 11/09/25Super League1:0
- 08/10/25Super League3:1
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1Lugano981027:725
Lugano981027:7252
Young Boys954031:1819
Young Boys954031:18193
Sion961223:1419
Sion961223:14194Basel941417:1713
Basel941417:17135
St. Gallen941416:1913
St. Gallen941416:19136
Luzern933317:1812
Luzern933317:1812Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with a subscription
Free full access for 3 days when you sign up
Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.