FC Basel 1893 — Grasshopper Club Zürich, Super League

Switzerland, Super LeagueOctober 25 at 03:30 PM

FC Basel 1893

2.1LWLLD

—

Grasshopper Club Zürich

0.9LLWDW

Outcome probability

602119

FC Basel 189360%Draw21%Grasshopper Club Zürich19%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1FC Basel 189360%1.67—

XDraw21%4.67—

2Grasshopper Club Zürich19%5.38—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes61%

ours 1.64

No39%

ours 2.57

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricFC Basel 1893Grasshopper Club ZürichCombined

Goals scored1.671.333.00

Conceded2.172.004.17

Corners10.413.411.9

Cards2.22.24.4

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
FC Basel 1893Grasshopper Club Zürich
4Table position10
52.80%Possession42.40%
14Days of rest14
0Matches in 14 days0
2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
Home advantage and current form favour FC Basel 1893: a home win is rated at 60%.
Most likely scorelines:…
3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pick
Risky pick
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