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Oss — RKC Waalwijk, Eerste Divisie: match prediction and stats

Match prediction and stats

Netherlands, Eerste Divisie

1.4DLWWL
  
2.0LDDLD
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Outcome probability
27%22%51%
Oss27%Draw22%RKC Waalwijk51%
Most confident forecast72% of such answers came in · 60 days
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Model and second estimate

Our probability next to the second estimate — independent, with no mark-up. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelSecond estimateΔ
1Oss27%——
XDraw22%——
2RKC Waalwijk51%——

our modelsecond estimate — independent, no mark-up

Quick predictions

The three most common questions — our probability next to the second estimate.

Both teams to score

Yes60%

No40%

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Goals and corners — with Premium

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Combos

Combos come with Premium: result and total, result and corners, both teams to score and total — probability, fair price and the comparison with the second estimate.

Combos — with Premium

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Confident answers

The line where the model is closest to 72% — and how often such answers have come in.

Goals prediction

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72%of such answers on goals came inlast 60 days · 3839 matches

Corners prediction

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71%of such answers on corners came inlast 60 days · 3828 matches

Cards prediction

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71%of such answers on cards came inlast 60 days · 3818 matches

Lines for goals, corners and cards — with Premium

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This is a probability, not a guarantee: roughly 3 answers in 10 don’t come in. This block is about the model’s accuracy.

Why the model reads the match this way

Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.

OssRKC Waalwijk

FC Oss 27%, RKC Waalwijk 51%. The safest is “No draw” at 78%.

FC Oss 27%Draw 22%RKC Waalwijk 51%
1st half
22 · 36 · 42
2nd half
29 · 28 · 42
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?

The full analysis and both conclusions — with Premium

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Total corners: Over 8.5

71%
High variancelow probability, high price

Two more scenarios — with Premium

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricOssRKC WaalwijkCombined
Goals scored2.200.803.00
Conceded
Corners
Cards
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

The other nine metrics — with Premium

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Insights

What to know before the match: recent games, the table, head-to-head. Only facts from played matches — no model opinions.

Oss
  • Unbeaten at home in 5 matches3:3, 3:1, 4:1, 3:0, 2:1
  • 11 goals in the last 5 matches3:3, 1:2, 3:1, 4:1, 0:1
  • Conceded in every one of the last 5 matches8 goals conceded
RKC Waalwijk
  • Winless in 6 matches1:2, 1:1, 1:1, 0:3, 1:1
  • Conceded in every one of the last 5 matches8 goals conceded
  • 7 days’ rest vs 4 for the opponent

Based on played matches of the current season and recent games. A fact is shown only when it stands out from the usual.

Form and context

Oss

  • homeAjax II3:3
  • awayDen Bosch1:2
  • homeHelmond Sport3:1
  • homeMVV4:1
  • awayEmmen0:1

RKC Waalwijk

  • homeAlmere City1:2
  • awayDe Graafschap1:1
  • homeVolendam1:1
  • awayHeracles0:3
  • homeEmmen1:1

Head to head

  • 01/30/26Eerste Divisie0:2
  • 11/21/25Eerste Divisie0:0

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
9Vitesse1252516:1717
10MVV1252516:2717
11RKC Waalwijk1337322:1916
12PSV II1244417:1916
13Den Bosch1243518:2115
14De Graafschap1343617:2715
15Oss1241719:2013
16Helmond Sport1333723:2812
17Ajax II1233618:2912

Full breakdown

Every forecast type the model computes. Our probability on the left, our fair price and the second estimate on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.