All matches

MVV — VVV Venlo, Eerste Divisie

Netherlands, Eerste Divisie

MVV
1.2LWLLD
—
VVV Venlo
1.4WLWWL
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Outcome probability
36%23%41%
MVV36%Draw23%VVV Venlo41%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1MVV36%2.82—
XDraw23%4.31—
2VVV Venlo41%2.42—

our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes59%

ours 1.69

No41%

ours 2.44

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricMVVVVV VenloCombined
Goals scored0.671.171.84
Conceded1.670.672.34
Corners9.09.79.3
Cards0.71.32.0
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.

MVVVVV Venlo

MVV 36%, VVV Venlo 41%. The safest is “No draw” at 76%.

MVV 36%Draw 23%VVV Venlo 41%
1st half
33 · 39 · 28
2nd half
29 · 34 · 38
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Second half total: Under 2.5

69%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

MVV

  • awayOss1:4
  • homeHelmond Sport2:0
  • awayRKC Waalwijk1:6
  • homeAlmere City0:4
  • homeRoda JC1:1

VVV Venlo

  • homeRoda JC2:0
  • awayVolendam2:3
  • awayUtrecht II3:1
  • homeOss3:1
  • awayHelmond Sport2:4

Head to head

  • 03/13/26Eerste Divisie2:1
  • 09/21/25Eerste Divisie0:1
  • 02/09/25Eerste Divisie0:0
  • 10/13/24Eerste Divisie2:0

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1Heracles971128:1222
2Almere City961219:719
3VVV Venlo960323:1418
4Emmen951319:1816
5MVV951313:1916
6Roda JC94329:715
7RKC Waalwijk935119:1214

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.