Both teams to score
Yes67%
ours 1.50
No33%
ours 3.02
All matches
—
Volendam — De Graafschap, Eerste Divisie
Netherlands, Eerste Divisie
Volendam
1.9LWLWL
De Graafschap
2.1DWLWL
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
52%22%26%
Volendam52%Draw22%De Graafschap26%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Volendam1.91—
XDraw4.56—
2De Graafschap3.90—
our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricVolendamDe GraafschapCombined
Goals scored0.670.671.34
Conceded1.170.671.84
Corners9.712.010.8
Cards1.31.73.0
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
VolendamDe Graafschap
FC Volendam 52%, BV De Graafschap 26%. The safest is “No draw” at 78%.
FC Volendam 52%Draw 22%BV De Graafschap 26%
1st half
38 · 33 · 28
2nd half
41 · 32 · 27
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Double chance: Home or draw
71%
Two more scenarios — with a subscription
Form and context
Volendam
- awayAlmere City0:1
- homeVVV Venlo3:2
- awayAZ II1:4
- homeDen Bosch2:0
- awayEmmen3:5
De Graafschap
- awayEindhoven2:2
- homeDen Bosch1:0
- homeNAC Breda1:2
- awayEmmen2:1
- awayHeracles0:5
Head to head
- 12/22/24Eerste Divisie2:1
- 08/11/24Eerste Divisie3:4
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
9
NAC Breda942319:1914
NAC Breda942319:191410
AZ II941422:1713
AZ II941422:171311Volendam940520:1712
Volendam940520:171212
PSV II933314:1612
PSV II933314:161213
Eindhoven932415:1911
Eindhoven932415:191114
Helmond Sport923415:169
Helmond Sport923415:16915
Oss930612:149
Oss930612:14916
Den Bosch922513:188
Den Bosch922513:18817
Ajax II922513:228
Ajax II922513:22818
Dordrecht922513:248
Dordrecht922513:24819De Graafschap922511:228
De Graafschap922511:22820
Utrecht II921615:217
Utrecht II921615:217Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with a subscription
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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.