All matches

Roda JC — AZ II, Eerste Divisie

Netherlands, Eerste Divisie

Roda JC
1.9LWDWD
—
AZ II
1.4WDLWW
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Outcome probability
45%23%31%
Roda JC45%Draw23%AZ II31%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Roda JC45%2.21—
XDraw23%4.29—
2AZ II31%3.18—

our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes60%

ours 1.66

No40%

ours 2.52

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricRoda JCAZ IICombined
Goals scored0.331.171.50
Conceded0.330.831.16
Corners7.79.38.5
Cards2.01.33.3
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.

Roda JCAZ II

SV Roda JC 45%, Alkmaar Zaanstreek II 31%. The safest is “No draw” at 76%.

SV Roda JC 45%Draw 23%Alkmaar Zaanstreek II 31%
1st half
37 · 36 · 27
2nd half
33 · 36 · 32
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Total corners: Under 11.5

66%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Roda JC

  • awayVVV Venlo0:2
  • homeRKC Waalwijk2:0
  • awayAjax II0:0
  • homeVitesse1:0
  • awayMVV1:1

AZ II

  • homeVolendam4:1
  • awayPSV II1:1
  • awayHeracles2:3
  • awayDordrecht6:3
  • homeUtrecht II2:1

Head to head

  • 04/24/26Eerste Divisie0:2
  • 12/05/25Eerste Divisie2:3
  • 02/07/25Eerste Divisie3:3
  • 08/12/24Eerste Divisie1:6

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
4Emmen951319:1816
5MVV951313:1916
6Roda JC94329:715
7RKC Waalwijk935119:1214
8Vitesse942315:1314
9NAC Breda942319:1914
10AZ II941422:1713
11Volendam940520:1712
12PSV II933314:1612

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.