FC Vaduz — FC Basel 1893, Super League

Switzerland, Super LeagueOctober 11 at 02:30 PM

FC Vaduz

1.5LLWLW

—

FC Basel 1893

2.1LWLLD

Outcome probability

382537

FC Vaduz38%Draw25%FC Basel 189337%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1FC Vaduz38%2.64—

XDraw25%3.92—

2FC Basel 189337%2.73—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes67%

ours 1.48

No33%

ours 3.06

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricFC VaduzFC Basel 1893Combined

Goals scored2.172.004.17

Conceded2.172.334.50

Corners10.010.310.2

Cards2.23.05.2

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
FC VaduzFC Basel 1893
11Table position4
59.80%Possession53.80%
14Days of rest14
0Matches in 14 days0
2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
FC Vaduz look the favourite on home turf and current form — a home win is rated at 38%.
Most likely scorelines:…
3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pick
Risky pick
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