Both teams to score
Yes61%
ours 1.64
No39%
ours 2.57
All matches
Lyon — Monaco, Ligue 1: match prediction and stats
Match prediction and stats
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
43%26%31%
Lyon43%Draw26%Monaco31%
Most confident forecast72% of such answers came in · 60 days
Available with PremiumUnlock
Model and prices
Our probability next to the probability from the price, with the mark-up removed. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelPriceΔ
1Lyon2.31—
XDraw3.82—
2Monaco3.27—
our modelfrom the price, mark-up removed
Quick predictions
The three most common questions — our probability next to the price.
Over 2.5 goals
This prediction opens with Premium.
Over 9.5 corners
This prediction opens with Premium.
Goals and corners — with Premium
Every pick of the day, full match analysis, scenarios and combos.
3 days freeAlready have an account? Sign in
Combos
Combos come with Premium: result and total, result and corners, both teams to score and total — probability, fair price and the comparison with the prices.
Combos — with Premium
Every pick of the day, full match analysis, scenarios and combos.
3 days freeAlready have an account? Sign in
Confident answers
The line where the model is closest to 72% — and how often such answers have come in.
Goals prediction
This prediction opens with Premium.
72%of such answers on goals came inlast 60 days · 4185 matches
Corners prediction
This prediction opens with Premium.
71%of such answers on corners came inlast 60 days · 4170 matches
Cards prediction
This prediction opens with Premium.
71%of such answers on cards came inlast 60 days · 4155 matches
Lines for goals, corners and cards — with Premium
Every pick of the day, full match analysis, scenarios and combos.
3 days freeAlready have an account? Sign in
This is a probability, not a guarantee: roughly 3 answers in 10 don’t come in. This block is about the model’s accuracy.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
LyonMonaco
Olympique Lyonnais 43%, AS Monaco FC 31%. The safest is “No draw” at 74%.
Olympique Lyonnais 43%Draw 26%AS Monaco FC 31%
1st half
36 · 40 · 24
2nd half
35 · 32 · 33
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
The full analysis and both conclusions — with Premium
Every pick of the day, full match analysis, scenarios and combos.
3 days freeAlready have an account? Sign in
More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Second half total: Under 2.5
72%
Two more scenarios — with Premium
Every pick of the day, full match analysis, scenarios and combos.
3 days freeAlready have an account? Sign in
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricLyonMonacoCombined
Goals scored1.401.402.80
Conceded
Corners
Cards
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other nine metrics — with Premium
Every pick of the day, full match analysis, scenarios and combos.
3 days freeAlready have an account? Sign in
Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Insights
What to know before the match: recent games, the table, head-to-head. Only facts from played matches — no model opinions.
Lyon- Unbeaten at home in 6 matches2:0, 2:1, 3:2, 4:0, 3:1
- Conceded in 4 of the last 5 matches8 goals conceded
- Led at half-time in 6 of 10 matches
Monaco- Played in Europe this week
- Won 3 of the last 4 head-to-head meetings2:1, 1:3, 2:0, 2:0
Based on played matches of the current season and recent games. A fact is shown only when it stands out from the usual.
Form and context
Lyon
- homeAngers2:0
- awayPSG0:2
- awayHoffenheim0:3
- homeNice2:1
- homeCrystal Palace3:2
Monaco
- awayParis FC1:3
- homeLille1:1
- homeFreiburg3:0
- awayLorient0:1
- awayCSKA Sofia2:1
Head to head
- 03/22/26Ligue 11:2
- 01/03/26Ligue 13:1
- 05/10/25Ligue 10:2
- 08/24/24Ligue 10:2
More matches in this competition
France, Ligue 1: upcoming and recently played.
Full breakdown
Every forecast type the model computes. Our probability on the left, our fair price and the current price on the right.
Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with Premium
Every pick of the day, full match analysis, scenarios and combos.
3 days freeAlready have an account? Sign in
Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.