All matches

Arsenal — Leeds United, Premier League

England, Premier League

Arsenal
4.4LWWWW
—
Leeds United
2.9DWDDW
Outcome probability
6425
Arsenal64%Draw25%Leeds United11%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Arsenal64%74%1.571.36-10.0
XDraw25%18%3.975.43+6.8
2Leeds United11%10%8.8310.20+1.5

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes38%

ours 2.63book 2.09

No62%

ours 1.61book 1.68

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricArsenalLeeds UnitedCombined
Goals scored1.501.172.67
Conceded0.671.001.67
Corners7.89.38.6
Cards1.31.73.0
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    ArsenalLeeds United
    2Table position5
    59.20%Possession47.20%
    14Days of rest14
    0Matches in 14 days0
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    Arsenal FC look the favourite on home turf and current form — a home win is rated at 64%. Bookmakers price this at 1.36.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Total goals: Over 1.5

69%1.19
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Arsenal

  • awayBrighton0:3
  • awaySunderland2:0
  • awayNapoli1:0
  • homeChelsea2:1
  • awayAston Villa1:0

Leeds United

  • homeCrystal Palace0:0
  • homeNewcastle United4:1
  • awayBrighton1:1
  • homeBrentford1:1
  • awayNottingham Forest1:0

Head to head

  • 01/31/26Premier League4:0
  • 08/23/25Premier League5:0

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1Manchester City550013:515
2Arsenal54018:412
3Brighton531116:510
4Brentford523010:49
5Leeds United52307:39
6Liverpool52307:49
7Everton52306:39

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.