Both teams to score
Yes42%
ours 2.38
No58%
ours 1.72
All matches
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Arsenal — Lille, UEFA Champions League
Europe, UEFA Champions League
Arsenal
4.4LWWWW
Lille
2.7LWLWD
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
71%19%
Arsenal71%Draw19%Lille10%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Arsenal1.41—
XDraw5.18—
2Lille10.40—
our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricArsenalLilleCombined
Goals scored1.001.332.33
Conceded0.671.171.84
Corners7.48.07.7
Cards1.41.02.4
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
ArsenalLille
Arsenal FC 71%, Lille OSC Métropole 10%. The safest is “Arsenal FC or draw” at 90%.
Arsenal FC 71%Draw 19%Lille OSC Métropole 10%
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Match result: Home
71%
Two more scenarios — with a subscription
Form and context
Arsenal
- awayBrighton0:3
- awaySunderland2:0
- awayNapoli1:0
- homeChelsea2:1
- awayAston Villa1:0
Lille
- awayNice1:2
- homeTroyes2:0
- homeReal Betis2:3
- awayToulouse1:0
- homePSG2:2
Head to head
No head-to-head matches on record.
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
40
Liverpool11002:13
Liverpool11002:1341
Real Madrid11002:13
Real Madrid11002:1342Arsenal11001:03
Arsenal11001:0343
LASK31025:53
LASK31025:5344
Lech Poznan21015:53
Lech Poznan21015:5345
Omonia21011:13
Omonia21011:1346
Celtic21014:53
Celtic21014:5347
Vardar21013:43
Vardar21013:4348
Riga21013:43
Riga21013:4349
KuPS41034:63
KuPS41034:6350
Floriana21013:53
Floriana21013:5351
Sparta Prague21012:43
Sparta Prague21012:4352
Shakhtar Donetsk10101:11
Shakhtar Donetsk10101:1153
Roma10101:11
Roma10101:1154
PSV10101:11
PSV10101:1155
Union Saint-Gilloise20115:61
Union Saint-Gilloise20115:6156
Flora20114:51
Flora20114:5157
Thun20113:41
Thun20113:4158
Drita20113:41
Drita20113:4159
ETO Gyor20112:31
ETO Gyor20112:3160
Gornik Zabrze20111:21
Gornik Zabrze20111:2161
Olympiakos20111:21
Olympiakos20111:2162
Inter Escaldes20112:41
Inter Escaldes20112:4163
Borac Banja Luka20111:51
Borac Banja Luka20111:5164
Petrocub20112:71
Petrocub20112:7165
Slavia Prague10012:30
Slavia Prague10012:3066Lille10012:30
Lille10012:3067
Villarreal10012:30
Villarreal10012:3068
Club Brugge10012:30
Club Brugge10012:30Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with a subscription
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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.