CF Monterrey — CD Guadalajara, Liga MX

Mexico, Liga MXOctober 25 at 12:00 AM

CF Monterrey

2.2LWDLL

—

CD Guadalajara

2.5LDWWD

Outcome probability

382735

CF Monterrey38%Draw27%CD Guadalajara35%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1CF Monterrey38%2.65—

XDraw27%3.72—

2CD Guadalajara35%2.83—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes58%

ours 1.71

No42%

ours 2.40

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricCF MonterreyCD GuadalajaraCombined

Goals scored0.500.831.33

Conceded0.670.671.34

Corners8.013.010.5

Cards2.01.33.3

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
CF MonterreyCD Guadalajara
10Table position3
3Days of rest4
56.70%Possession61.70%
3Matches in 14 days3
2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
CF Monterrey look the favourite on home turf and current form — a home win is rated at 38%.
Most likely scorelines:…
3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pick
Risky pick
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