Club América — CF Monterrey, Liga MX

Mexico, Liga MXOctober 11 at 03:00 AM

Club América

2.8WDLWW

—

CF Monterrey

2.2LWDLL

Outcome probability

612117

Club América61%Draw21%CF Monterrey17%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1Club América61%1.63—

XDraw21%4.69—

2CF Monterrey17%5.75—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes61%

ours 1.65

No39%

ours 2.55

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricClub AméricaCF MonterreyCombined

Goals scored2.671.674.34

Conceded1.501.673.17

Corners11.810.311.1

Cards1.31.73.0

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
Club AméricaCF Monterrey
1Matches in 14 days0
2Table position10
54.00%Possession61.50%
13Days of rest14
2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
Club América look the favourite on home turf and current form — a home win is rated at 61%.
Most likely scorelines:…
3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pick
Risky pick
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