All matches

CF Monterrey — CF Pachuca, Liga MX

Mexico, Liga MX

CF Monterrey
2.2LWDLL
—
CF Pachuca
2.1LDWWD
Outcome probability
432730
CF Monterrey43%Draw27%CF Pachuca30%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1CF Monterrey43%2.33—
XDraw27%3.74—
2CF Pachuca30%3.29—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes56%

ours 1.80

No44%

ours 2.25

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricCF MonterreyCF PachucaCombined
Goals scored0.671.332.00
Conceded1.500.672.17
Corners10.410.610.5
Cards2.03.25.2
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    CF MonterreyCF Pachuca
    61.40%Possession47.60%
    7.9Days of rest7.1
    10Table position11
    1Matches in 14 days1
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    CF Monterrey look the favourite on home turf and current form — a home win is rated at 43%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Second half total: Over 0.5

71%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

CF Monterrey

  • awayClub Atlante2:4
  • homeCruz Azul FC1:0
  • homeTigres UANL0:0
  • homeAtlético San Luis1:3
  • awayClub León0:2

CF Pachuca

  • awayClub Santos Laguna0:1
  • homeClub Tijuana Xoloitzcuintles de Caliente2:2
  • awayClub Atlante3:0
  • awayFC Juárez2:0
  • homeCD Guadalajara1:1

Head to head

  • 04/19/26Liga MX1:3
  • 07/13/25Liga MX0:3
  • 04/28/25Liga MX1:2
  • 01/26/25Liga MX2:3
  • 07/08/24Liga MX1:0

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
8Club Tijuana Xoloitzcuintles de Caliente942314:1314
9Puebla FC1042411:1214
10CF Monterrey941416:1413
11CF Pachuca1033415:1112
12Club Universidad Nacional1033414:1612
13Atlético San Luis1033414:1812

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.