CD Guadalajara — Club Necaxa, Liga MX

Mexico, Liga MXOctober 21 at 12:07 AM

CD Guadalajara

2.5LDWWD

—

Club Necaxa

1.4LLLDL

Outcome probability

6918

CD Guadalajara69%Draw18%Club Necaxa13%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1CD Guadalajara69%1.45—

XDraw18%5.46—

2Club Necaxa13%7.97—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes53%

ours 1.88

No47%

ours 2.13

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricCD GuadalajaraClub NecaxaCombined

Goals scored1.330.672.00

Conceded0.671.502.17

Corners11.09.310.1

Cards1.01.82.8

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
CD GuadalajaraClub Necaxa
3Table position17
3Days of rest4
58.80%Possession48.00%
2Matches in 14 days2
2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
CD Guadalajara look the favourite on home turf and current form — a home win is rated at 69%.
Most likely scorelines:…
3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pick
Risky pick
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