All matches

Puebla FC — CF Monterrey, Liga MX

Mexico, Liga MX

Puebla FC
0.8LDLWL
—
CF Monterrey
2.2LWDLL
Outcome probability
302743
Puebla FC30%Draw27%CF Monterrey43%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Puebla FC30%3.38—
XDraw27%3.71—
2CF Monterrey43%2.30—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes52%

ours 1.92

No48%

ours 2.09

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricPuebla FCCF MonterreyCombined
Goals scored0.330.671.00
Conceded0.501.171.67
Corners11.59.810.6
Cards1.51.83.3
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    Puebla FCCF Monterrey
    4.9Days of rest3
    46.50%Possession60.50%
    9Table position10
    2Matches in 14 days2
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    CF Monterrey travel as favourites: despite playing away, a win is rated at 43%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Total corners: Over 7.5

72%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Puebla FC

  • awayTigres UANL0:1
  • homeClub Atlante1:1
  • homeDeportivo Toluca FC0:1
  • awayClub Necaxa1:0
  • awayClub América0:2

CF Monterrey

  • awayClub Atlante2:4
  • homeCruz Azul FC1:0
  • homeTigres UANL0:0
  • homeAtlético San Luis1:3
  • awayClub León0:2

Head to head

  • 04/22/26Liga MX1:2
  • 08/30/25Liga MX2:4
  • 01/13/25Liga MX1:1
  • 08/17/24Liga MX1:2

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
7Cruz Azul FC1051419:1816
8Club Tijuana Xoloitzcuintles de Caliente942314:1314
9Puebla FC1042411:1214
10CF Monterrey941416:1413
11CF Pachuca1033415:1112
12Club Universidad Nacional1033414:1612

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.