CD Guadalajara — Tigres UANL, Liga MX

Mexico, Liga MXOctober 17 at 11:07 PM

CD Guadalajara

2.5LDWWD

—

Tigres UANL

2.4WLDDD

Outcome probability

512623

CD Guadalajara51%Draw26%Tigres UANL23%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1CD Guadalajara51%1.95—

XDraw26%3.89—

2Tigres UANL23%4.35—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes46%

ours 2.17

No54%

ours 1.86

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricCD GuadalajaraTigres UANLCombined

Goals scored1.500.331.83

Conceded0.830.501.33

Corners11.89.210.5

Cards0.81.62.4

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
CD GuadalajaraTigres UANL
3Table position15
58.40%Possession49.80%
6.9Days of rest7.8
1Matches in 14 days1
2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
CD Guadalajara look the favourite on home turf and current form — a home win is rated at 51%.
Most likely scorelines:…
3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pick
Risky pick
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