Both teams to score
Yes43%
ours 2.31
No57%
ours 1.76
All matches
—
CD Nacional Funchal — Sporting Braga, Liga NOS
Portugal, Liga NOS
CD Nacional Funchal
1.0LLLLLSporting Braga
3.5DWLWWOutcome probability
2167
CD Nacional Funchal12%Draw21%Sporting Braga67%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1CD Nacional Funchal8.52—
XDraw4.70—
2Sporting Braga1.49—
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricCD Nacional FunchalSporting BragaCombined
Goals scored0.500.330.83
Conceded2.170.332.50
Corners7.610.08.8
Cards1.21.32.5
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Why the model reads the match this way
One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.
- 1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
CD Nacional FunchalSporting Braga0Matches in 14 days214Days of rest315Table position649.60%Possession57.70% - 2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
Sporting Braga travel as favourites: despite playing away, a win is rated at 67%.
Most likely scorelines:…
- 3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pickRisky pickThe full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
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More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Total goals: Over 1.5
72%
Form and context
CD Nacional Funchal
- homeFC Famalicão0:4
- homeAlverca1:3
- awaySporting Clube de Portugal0:2
- homeEstrela Amadora2:3
- awayVitória Guimarães SC0:1
Sporting Braga
- awayCD Santa Clara0:0
- homeGD Estoril Praia1:0
- awayEstrela Amadora1:2
- awayAlverca2:1
- homeVitória Guimarães SC1:0
Head to head
- 02/28/26Liga NOS1:2
- 09/28/25Liga NOS1:0
- 02/21/25Liga NOS0:1
- 09/20/24Liga NOS0:3
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
4
CD Santa Clara743011:415
CD Santa Clara743011:4155
FC Arouca732210:711
FC Arouca732210:7116Sporting Braga63217:511
Sporting Braga63217:5117
Academico de Viseu FC73229:911
Academico de Viseu FC73229:9118
Estrela Amadora724114:1410
Estrela Amadora724114:14109
Gil Vicente FC62225:58
Gil Vicente FC62225:5810
Alverca72239:118
Alverca72239:11811
CS Marítimo Funchal72238:128
CS Marítimo Funchal72238:12812
Moreirense FC72238:148
Moreirense FC72238:14813
FC Famalicão71429:77
FC Famalicão71429:7714
Vitória Guimarães SC71245:85
Vitória Guimarães SC71245:8515CD Nacional Funchal71157:154
CD Nacional Funchal71157:15416
Rio Ave FC71155:154
Rio Ave FC71155:15417
Casa Pia AC71153:164
Casa Pia AC71153:164