All matches

Rio Ave FC — CD Nacional Funchal, Liga NOS

Portugal, Liga NOS

Rio Ave FC
1.3LDLLW
—
CD Nacional Funchal
1.0LLLLL
Outcome probability
403029
Rio Ave FC40%Draw30%CD Nacional Funchal29%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Rio Ave FC40%2.49—
XDraw30%3.29—
2CD Nacional Funchal29%3.40—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes50%

ours 2.01

No50%

ours 1.99

Over 2.5 goals

This market opens with a subscription.

See plans

Over 9.5 corners

This market opens with a subscription.

See plans

Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricRio Ave FCCD Nacional FunchalCombined
Goals scored0.830.831.66
Conceded2.332.174.50
Corners9.38.28.8
Cards1.21.32.5
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

The other six metrics — with a subscription

Free full access for 3 days when you sign up

Start freePlans

Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    Rio Ave FCCD Nacional Funchal
    44.00%Possession51.20%
    16Table position15
    14Days of rest14
    0Matches in 14 days0
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    Rio Ave FC look the favourite on home turf and current form — a home win is rated at 40%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

    The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription

    Free full access for 3 days when you sign up

    Start freePlans

More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Total corners: Over 8.5

71%
High variancelow probability, high price

Two more scenarios — with a subscription

Free full access for 3 days when you sign up

Start freePlans

Form and context

Rio Ave FC

  • awayAlverca0:1
  • homeEstrela Amadora3:3
  • awayCD Santa Clara0:4
  • homeSporting Clube de Portugal0:4
  • awayGD Estoril Praia2:0

CD Nacional Funchal

  • homeFC Famalicão0:4
  • homeAlverca1:3
  • awaySporting Clube de Portugal0:2
  • homeEstrela Amadora2:3
  • awayVitória Guimarães SC0:1

Head to head

  • 01/25/26Liga NOS0:4
  • 08/17/25Liga NOS1:1
  • 05/10/25Liga NOS3:3
  • 12/29/24Liga NOS2:1

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
13FC Famalicão71429:77
14Vitória Guimarães SC71245:85
15CD Nacional Funchal71157:154
16Rio Ave FC71155:154
17Casa Pia AC71153:164
18GD Estoril Praia70253:102

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with a subscription

Free full access for 3 days when you sign up

PlansSign in

Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.