Rio Ave FC — FC Famalicão, Liga NOS

Portugal, Liga NOSOctober 25 at 06:00 PM

Rio Ave FC

1.3LDLLW

—

FC Famalicão

2.3WDDDL

Outcome probability

172756

Rio Ave FC17%Draw27%FC Famalicão56%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1Rio Ave FC17%5.88—

XDraw27%3.77—

2FC Famalicão56%1.77—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes40%

ours 2.48

No60%

ours 1.68

Over 2.5 goals

This market opens with a subscription.

See plans

Over 9.5 corners

This market opens with a subscription.

See plans

Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricRio Ave FCFC FamalicãoCombined

Goals scored0.831.172.00

Conceded2.000.672.67

Corners8.89.49.1

Cards1.42.43.8

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

The other six metrics — with a subscription

Free full access for 3 days when you sign up

Start free Plans

Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
Rio Ave FCFC Famalicão
0Matches in 14 days1
16Table position13
43.20%Possession52.00%
14Days of rest12.9
2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
Away from home, FC Famalicão still look stronger — an away win is rated at 56%.
Most likely scorelines:…
3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pick
Risky pick
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
Free full access for 3 days when you sign up
Start free Plans