All matches

CD Santa Clara — SL Benfica, Liga NOS

Portugal, Liga NOS

CD Santa Clara
2.1DWWDW
—
SL Benfica
4.0LWWWW
Outcome probability
2069
CD Santa Clara11%Draw20%SL Benfica69%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1CD Santa Clara11%9.43—
XDraw20%4.94—
2SL Benfica69%1.45—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes40%

ours 2.52

No60%

ours 1.66

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricCD Santa ClaraSL BenficaCombined
Goals scored1.331.002.33
Conceded0.330.671.00
Corners10.210.310.3
Cards2.43.76.1
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    CD Santa ClaraSL Benfica
    0Matches in 14 days2
    14Days of rest4
    4Table position2
    45.00%Possession52.70%
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    SL Benfica travel as favourites: despite playing away, a win is rated at 69%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Match result: Away

69%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

CD Santa Clara

  • homeSporting Braga0:0
  • awayFC Arouca2:1
  • homeRio Ave FC4:0
  • awayAlverca1:1
  • homeFC Famalicão1:0

SL Benfica

  • awayFC Porto1:3
  • awayAC Milan2:0
  • homeGil Vicente FC3:1
  • awayMoreirense FC4:0
  • awayCS Marítimo Funchal3:0

Head to head

  • 02/13/26Liga NOS1:2
  • 09/12/25Liga NOS1:1
  • 02/15/25Liga NOS0:1
  • 09/14/24Liga NOS1:4

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1FC Porto770018:321
2SL Benfica751122:716
3Sporting Clube de Portugal743017:815
4CD Santa Clara743011:415
5FC Arouca732210:711
6Sporting Braga63217:511

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.