Both teams to score
Yes56%
ours 1.78
No44%
ours 2.28
All matches
—
Moreirense — Estrela Amadora, Liga NOS
Portugal, Liga NOS
Moreirense
1.6DWLLW
Estrela Amadora
1.2LDWDW
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
44%27%30%
Moreirense44%Draw27%Estrela Amadora30%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Moreirense2.29—
XDraw3.77—
2Estrela Amadora3.36—
our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricMoreirenseEstrela AmadoraCombined
Goals scored0.831.172.00
Conceded1.331.332.66
Corners7.810.08.9
Cards1.82.54.3
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
MoreirenseEstrela Amadora
Moreirense FC 44%, Estrela Amadora 30%. The safest is “No draw” at 75%.
Moreirense FC 44%Draw 27%Estrela Amadora 30%
1st half
35 · 42 · 24
2nd half
28 · 37 · 34
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Total goals: Under 3.5
72%
Two more scenarios — with a subscription
Form and context
Moreirense
- awayVitoria Guimaraes1:1
- homeMaritimo3:1
- homeBenfica0:4
- awayPorto1:2
- awayCasa Pia1:0
Estrela Amadora
- homeAcademico de Viseu0:2
- awayRio Ave3:3
- homeBraga2:1
- homeFamalicao2:2
- awayNacional3:2
Head to head
- 05/02/26Liga NOS3:2
- 12/20/25Liga NOS0:0
- 03/02/25Liga NOS1:1
- 09/28/24Liga NOS1:2
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
6
Braga63217:511
Braga63217:5117
Academico de Viseu73229:911
Academico de Viseu73229:9118Estrela Amadora724114:1410
Estrela Amadora724114:14109
Gil Vicente62225:58
Gil Vicente62225:5810
Alverca72239:118
Alverca72239:11811
Maritimo72238:128
Maritimo72238:12812Moreirense72238:148
Moreirense72238:14813
Famalicao71429:77
Famalicao71429:7714
Vitoria Guimaraes71245:85
Vitoria Guimaraes71245:85Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with a subscription
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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.