Both teams to score
Yes50%
ours 1.99
No50%
ours 2.01
All matches
—
Maritimo — Santa Clara, Liga NOS
Portugal, Liga NOS
Maritimo
2.3DLLLD
Santa Clara
2.1DWWDW
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
37%28%35%
Maritimo37%Draw28%Santa Clara35%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Maritimo2.71—
XDraw3.59—
2Santa Clara2.84—
our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricMaritimoSanta ClaraCombined
Goals scored0.501.171.67
Conceded1.500.331.83
Corners7.010.38.6
Cards1.82.84.5
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
MaritimoSanta Clara
CS Marítimo Funchal 37%, CD Santa Clara 35%. The safest is “No draw” at 73%.
CS Marítimo Funchal 37%Draw 28%CD Santa Clara 35%
1st half
27 · 43 · 30
2nd half
31 · 42 · 27
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
First half total: Under 1.5
70%
Two more scenarios — with a subscription
Form and context
Maritimo
- awayGil Vicente1:1
- awayMoreirense1:3
- homeBenfica0:3
- awayArouca1:2
- homeAcademico de Viseu2:2
Santa Clara
- homeBraga0:0
- awayArouca2:1
- homeRio Ave4:0
- awayAlverca1:1
- homeFamalicao1:0
Head to head
No head-to-head matches on record.
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
2
Benfica751122:716
Benfica751122:7163
Sporting CP743017:815
Sporting CP743017:8154Santa Clara743011:415
Santa Clara743011:4155
Arouca732210:711
Arouca732210:7116
Braga63217:511
Braga63217:5117
Academico de Viseu73229:911
Academico de Viseu73229:9118
Estrela Amadora724114:1410
Estrela Amadora724114:14109
Gil Vicente62225:58
Gil Vicente62225:5810
Alverca72239:118
Alverca72239:11811Maritimo72238:128
Maritimo72238:12812
Moreirense72238:148
Moreirense72238:14813
Famalicao71429:77
Famalicao71429:77Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with a subscription
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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.