All matches

Arouca — Nacional, Liga NOS

Portugal, Liga NOS

Arouca
1.8DLDWL
—
Nacional
1.0LLLLL
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Outcome probability
55%25%20%
Arouca55%Draw25%Nacional20%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Arouca55%1.81—
XDraw25%4.06—
2Nacional20%4.97—

our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes58%

ours 1.72

No42%

ours 2.39

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricAroucaNacionalCombined
Goals scored0.830.501.33
Conceded0.832.002.83
Corners7.07.87.4
Cards2.81.34.0
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.

AroucaNacional

FC Arouca 55%, CD Nacional Funchal 20%. The safest is “No draw” at 76%.

FC Arouca 55%Draw 25%CD Nacional Funchal 20%
1st half
38 · 39 · 23
2nd half
37 · 37 · 25
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

First half total: Over 0.5

72%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Arouca

  • awaySporting CP2:2
  • homeSanta Clara1:2
  • awayEstoril0:0
  • homeMaritimo2:1
  • awayPorto0:2

Nacional

  • homeFamalicao0:4
  • homeAlverca1:3
  • awaySporting CP0:2
  • homeEstrela Amadora2:3
  • awayVitoria Guimaraes0:1

Head to head

  • 02/21/26Liga NOS3:0
  • 09/20/25Liga NOS2:1
  • 02/01/25Liga NOS2:1
  • 08/25/24Liga NOS1:0

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
3Sporting CP743017:815
4Santa Clara743011:415
5Arouca732210:711
6Braga63217:511
7Academico de Viseu73229:911
8Estrela Amadora724114:1410
9Gil Vicente62225:58
10Alverca72239:118
11Maritimo72238:128
12Moreirense72238:148
13Famalicao71429:77
14Vitoria Guimaraes71245:85
15Nacional71157:154
16Rio Ave71155:154
17Casa Pia71153:164

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.