Both teams to score
Yes53%
ours 1.90
No47%
ours 2.11
All matches
—
Casa Pia — Sporting CP, Liga NOS
Portugal, Liga NOS
Casa Pia
1.3WLDLL
Sporting CP
4.0DDWWW
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
16%75%
Casa Pia9%Draw16%Sporting CP75%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Casa Pia10.59—
XDraw6.34—
2Sporting CP1.34—
our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricCasa PiaSporting CPCombined
Goals scored0.500.501.00
Conceded1.000.501.50
Corners13.37.010.1
Cards2.34.06.3
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
Casa PiaSporting CP
Casa Pia AC 9%, Sporting Clube de Portugal 75%. The safest is “Sporting Clube de Portugal or draw” at 86%.
Casa Pia AC 9%Draw 16%Sporting Clube de Portugal 75%
1st half
17 · 36 · 47
2nd half
20 · 33 · 47
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Second half total: Under 2.5
71%
Two more scenarios — with a subscription
Form and context
Casa Pia
- awayEstoril2:1
- homePorto1:4
- awayVitoria Guimaraes0:0
- homeMoreirense0:1
- awayGil Vicente0:2
Sporting CP
- homeArouca2:2
- awayFamalicao1:1
- homeGalatasaray3:1
- homeNacional2:0
- awayRio Ave4:0
Head to head
- 01/16/26Liga NOS0:3
- 08/08/25Liga NOS0:2
- 03/09/25Liga NOS1:3
- 10/05/24Liga NOS0:2
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1
Porto770018:321
Porto770018:3212
Benfica751122:716
Benfica751122:7163Sporting CP743017:815
Sporting CP743017:8154
Santa Clara743011:415
Santa Clara743011:4155
Arouca732210:711
Arouca732210:7116
Braga63217:511
Braga63217:5117
Academico de Viseu73229:911
Academico de Viseu73229:9118
Estrela Amadora724114:1410
Estrela Amadora724114:14109
Gil Vicente62225:58
Gil Vicente62225:5810
Alverca72239:118
Alverca72239:11811
Maritimo72238:128
Maritimo72238:12812
Moreirense72238:148
Moreirense72238:14813
Famalicao71429:77
Famalicao71429:7714
Vitoria Guimaraes71245:85
Vitoria Guimaraes71245:8515
Nacional71157:154
Nacional71157:15416
Rio Ave71155:154
Rio Ave71155:15417Casa Pia71153:164
Casa Pia71153:16418
Estoril70253:102
Estoril70253:102Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with a subscription
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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.