Both teams to score
Yes48%
ours 2.08
No52%
ours 1.92
All matches
Independiente — Riestra, Primera División
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
51%29%21%
Independiente51%Draw29%Riestra21%
Most confident forecast72% of such answers came in · 60 days
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Model vs market
Our probability against the market’s — the bookmaker price with its margin removed. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Independiente1.98—
XDraw3.47—
2Riestra4.86—
our modelmarket — bookmaker price, margin removed
Quick markets
The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.
Over 2.5 goals
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Over 9.5 corners
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Goals and corners — with Premium
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Combos
Combos come with Premium: result and total, result and corners, both teams to score and total — probability, fair odds and the market comparison.
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Confident answers
The line where the model is closest to 72% — and how often such answers have come in.
Goals
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72%of such answers on goals came inlast 60 days · 3682 matches
Corners
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71%of such answers on corners came inlast 60 days · 3671 matches
Cards
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72%of such answers on cards came inlast 60 days · 3661 matches
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This is a probability, not a guarantee: roughly 3 answers in 10 don’t come in. Bookmaker odds on these lines are low — this block is about the model’s accuracy.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
IndependienteRiestra
CA Independiente 51%, Riestra 21%. The safest is “CA Independiente or draw” at 79%.
CA Independiente 51%Draw 29%Riestra 21%
1st half
36 · 45 · 19
2nd half
45 · 37 · 18
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
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More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Double chance: No draw
71%
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Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricIndependienteRiestraCombined
Goals scored0.800.401.20
Conceded
Corners
Cards
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Insights
What to know before the match: recent games, the table, head-to-head. Only facts from played matches — no model opinions.
Independiente- Winless at home in 6 matches0:1, 1:4, 1:1, 0:3, 0:0
- Conceded in 4 of the last 5 matches7 goals conceded
- One win in the last 5 matches0:1, 1:1, 0:0, 1:4, 2:1
Riestra- Winless away in 8 matches0:1, 0:1, 0:0, 1:1, 0:0
- Winless in 9 matches0:1, 1:1, 0:1, 1:1, 0:0
- Best defence in the league — 23 conceded in 29 matches28th place, 23 points
Based on played matches of the current season and recent games. A fact is shown only when it stands out from the usual.
Form and context
Independiente
- homeBoca Juniors0:1
- awayRacing Club1:1
- awayTalleres de Cordoba0:0
- homeInstituto Córdoba1:4
- awayUnion de Santa Fe2:1
Riestra
- awayInstituto Córdoba0:1
- homeUnion de Santa Fe1:1
- awaySan Lorenzo de Almagro0:1
- homeCentral Córdoba de Santiago del Estero1:1
- awayAtlético Gimnasia y Esgrima de Mendoza0:0
Head to head
- 04/24/26Primera División0:2
- 11/10/25Primera División1:0
- 04/28/25Primera División0:0
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
More matches in this competition
Argentina, Primera División: upcoming and recently played.
Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.