Both teams to score
Yes61%
ours 1.64
No39%
ours 2.56
All matches
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Defensa y Justicia — Independiente, Primera División
Argentina, Primera División
Defensa y Justicia
2.0WDWLW
Independiente
2.4LWDWL
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
42%26%32%
Defensa y Justicia42%Draw26%Independiente32%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Defensa y Justicia2.38—
XDraw3.83—
2Independiente3.14—
our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricDefensa y JusticiaIndependienteCombined
Goals scored1.170.671.84
Conceded0.331.001.33
Corners10.310.310.3
Cards2.33.05.3
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
Defensa y JusticiaIndependiente
CSD Defensa y Justicia 42%, CA Independiente 32%. The safest is “No draw” at 75%.
CSD Defensa y Justicia 42%Draw 26%CA Independiente 32%
1st half
38 · 36 · 26
2nd half
31 · 37 · 32
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Total corners: Under 11.5
72%
Two more scenarios — with a subscription
Form and context
Defensa y Justicia
- homeSan Lorenzo de Almagro3:0
- awayCentral Córdoba de Santiago del Estero2:2
- homeGimnasia Mendoza2:0
- awayLanus0:1
- homePlatense1:0
Independiente
- homeInstituto Córdoba1:4
- awayUnion de Santa Fe2:1
- homeSan Lorenzo de Almagro1:1
- awayCentral Córdoba de Santiago del Estero1:0
- homeGimnasia Mendoza0:3
Head to head
- 04/18/26Primera División1:3
- 06/15/17Primera División1:2
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
10
Huracan291111731:2444
Huracan291111731:244411
Instituto Córdoba26134932:2443
Instituto Córdoba26134932:244312Independiente28118936:3541
Independiente28118936:354113Defensa y Justicia271010734:3240
Defensa y Justicia271010734:324014
Lanus27108928:2638
Lanus27108928:263815
Union de Santa Fe291071243:4237
Union de Santa Fe291071243:4237Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with a subscription
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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.