All matches

Sarmiento — Rosario Central, Primera División

Argentina, Primera División

Sarmiento
1.5LDWLW
—
Rosario Central
2.9DWWDL
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Outcome probability
31%26%44%
Sarmiento31%Draw26%Rosario Central44%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Sarmiento31%3.28—
XDraw26%3.90—
2Rosario Central44%2.28—

our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes58%

ours 1.73

No42%

ours 2.37

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricSarmientoRosario CentralCombined
Goals scored0.330.500.83
Conceded0.670.170.84
Corners9.511.010.3
Cards4.02.06.0
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.

SarmientoRosario Central

CA Sarmiento 31%, CA Rosario Central 44%. The safest is “No draw” at 75%.

CA Sarmiento 31%Draw 26%CA Rosario Central 44%
1st half
35 · 38 · 27
2nd half
23 · 37 · 41
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Total corners: Over 7.5

72%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Sarmiento

  • awayRacing Club1:3
  • homeBelgrano de Cordoba1:1
  • awayEstudiantes de Río Cuarto2:0
  • awayUnion de Santa Fe1:4
  • homeEstudiantes2:0

Rosario Central

  • awayBanfield1:1
  • homeArgentinos Juniors1:0
  • awayTigre1:0
  • homeNewell's Old Boys1:1
  • homeGimnasia La Plata1:2

Head to head

  • 04/19/26Primera División1:2
  • 10/24/25Primera División0:1
  • 02/23/25Primera División0:1
  • 04/02/17Primera División2:2

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1Argentinos Juniors30169536:2457
2Belgrano de Cordoba311510636:2355
3Rosario Central30158737:2853
4Independiente Rivadavia28157645:3152
5Boca Juniors281311441:2350
6River Plate301541142:2949
7Velez Sarsfield281213335:2449
8Gimnasia La Plata291451036:3747
9Estudiantes281351032:1944
10Huracan291111731:2444
11Instituto Córdoba26134932:2443
12Independiente28118936:3541
13Defensa y Justicia271010734:3240
14Lanus27108928:2638
15Union de Santa Fe291071243:4237
16Gimnasia Mendoza271061128:3436
17Barracas Central2698922:2335
18Racing Club29981232:3435
19Sarmiento261121330:3635
20Talleres de Cordoba28971228:3234
21San Lorenzo de Almagro288101020:2734

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.