Instituto Córdoba — Riestra, Primera División

Argentina, Primera DivisiónOctober 25 at 12:00 AM

Instituto Córdoba

1.8WLWDW

—

Riestra

1.7DDDDL

Outcome probability

443224

Instituto Córdoba44%Draw32%Riestra24%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1Instituto Córdoba44%2.29—

XDraw32%3.14—

2Riestra24%4.10—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes27%

ours 3.75

No73%

ours 1.36

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricInstituto CórdobaRiestraCombined

Goals scored0.830.171.00

Conceded0.670.170.84

Corners7.56.06.8

Cards4.03.07.0

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
Instituto CórdobaRiestra
12Table position28
50.00%Possession27.00%
7Days of rest7
2Matches in 14 days2
2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
Home advantage and current form favour Instituto Córdoba: a home win is rated at 44%.
Most likely scorelines:…
3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pick
Risky pick
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