Both teams to score
Yes60%
ours 1.66
No40%
ours 2.52
All matches
—
Union de Santa Fe — Estudiantes, Primera División
Argentina, Primera División
Union de Santa Fe
1.6LLLWW
Estudiantes
2.3WLWLD
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
38%26%36%
Union de Santa Fe38%Draw26%Estudiantes36%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Union de Santa Fe2.63—
XDraw3.83—
2Estudiantes2.80—
our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricUnion de Santa FeEstudiantesCombined
Goals scored0.831.001.83
Conceded1.500.672.17
Corners8.57.07.8
Cards2.53.05.5
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
Union de Santa FeEstudiantes
CA Unión de Santa Fe 38%, Estudiantes de La Plata 36%. The safest is “No draw” at 75%.
CA Unión de Santa Fe 38%Draw 26%Estudiantes de La Plata 36%
1st half
36 · 38 · 26
2nd half
29 · 36 · 35
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Second half total: Under 2.5
70%
Two more scenarios — with a subscription
Form and context
Union de Santa Fe
- awayBoca Juniors0:3
- homeIndependiente1:2
- awayTalleres de Cordoba1:2
- homeInstituto Córdoba3:2
- homeSarmiento4:1
Estudiantes
- homeGimnasia Mendoza3:0
- awayLanus1:2
- homePlatense2:1
- awayVelez Sarsfield0:1
- homeNewell's Old Boys0:0
Head to head
- 04/11/26Primera División1:2
- 07/15/25Primera División1:0
- 01/25/25Primera División1:3
- 05/29/17Primera División0:2
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
7
Velez Sarsfield281213335:2449
Velez Sarsfield281213335:24498
Gimnasia La Plata291451036:3747
Gimnasia La Plata291451036:37479Estudiantes281351032:1944
Estudiantes281351032:194410
Huracan291111731:2444
Huracan291111731:244411
Instituto Córdoba26134932:2443
Instituto Córdoba26134932:244312
Independiente28118936:3541
Independiente28118936:354113
Defensa y Justicia271010734:3240
Defensa y Justicia271010734:324014
Lanus27108928:2638
Lanus27108928:263815Union de Santa Fe291071243:4237
Union de Santa Fe291071243:423716
Gimnasia Mendoza271061128:3436
Gimnasia Mendoza271061128:343617
Barracas Central2698922:2335
Barracas Central2698922:2335Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with a subscription
Free full access for 3 days when you sign up
Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.