Both teams to score
Yes51%
ours 1.96
No49%
ours 2.04
All matches
AEK Larnaca — Karmiotissa, First Division
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
84%11%
AEK Larnaca84%Draw11%Karmiotissa5%
Most confident forecast72% of such answers came in · 60 days
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Model vs market
Our probability against the market’s — the bookmaker price with its margin removed. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1AEK Larnaca1.19—
XDraw8.85—
2Karmiotissa20.12—
our modelmarket — bookmaker price, margin removed
Quick markets
The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.
Over 2.5 goals
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Over 9.5 corners
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Goals and corners — with Premium
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Combos
Combos come with Premium: result and total, result and corners, both teams to score and total — probability, fair odds and the market comparison.
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Confident answers
The line where the model is closest to 72% — and how often such answers have come in.
Goals
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72%of such answers on goals came inlast 60 days · 3725 matches
Corners
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71%of such answers on corners came inlast 60 days · 3714 matches
Cards
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71%of such answers on cards came inlast 60 days · 3703 matches
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This is a probability, not a guarantee: roughly 3 answers in 10 don’t come in. Bookmaker odds on these lines are low — this block is about the model’s accuracy.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
AEK LarnacaKarmiotissa
AEK Larnaca 84%, Karmiotissa Pano Polemidia 5%. The safest is “AEK Larnaca or draw” at 95%.
AEK Larnaca 84%Draw 11%Karmiotissa Pano Polemidia 5%
1st half
53 · 32 · 15
2nd half
69 · 25 · 7
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
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More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Total shots: Over 21.5
72%
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Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricAEK LarnacaKarmiotissaCombined
Goals scored1.200.401.60
Conceded
Corners
Cards
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Insights
What to know before the match: recent games, the table, head-to-head. Only facts from played matches — no model opinions.
AEK Larnaca- League leaders — 16 points from 7 matches
- 2 goals or fewer in 4 of the last 5
Karmiotissa- Winless away in 6 matches1:2, 0:0, 2:2, 0:1, 1:2
- Winless in 8 matches0:5, 1:2, 0:3, 0:0, 1:1
- Only 2 goals in the last 5 matches0:5, 1:2, 0:3, 0:0, 1:1
Based on played matches of the current season and recent games. A fact is shown only when it stands out from the usual.
Form and context
AEK Larnaca
- homeOmonia2:0
- awayAris Limassol1:1
- homeOmonia Aradippou1:0
- awayOmonia 29 Maiou2:1
- homePaphos0:1
Karmiotissa
- homeApollon Limassol0:5
- awayKrasava Ypsonas1:2
- homeOmonia0:3
- awayAris Limassol0:0
- homeOmonia Aradippou1:1
Head to head
- 02/22/25First Division3:0
- 11/25/24First Division2:0
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
More matches in this competition
Cyprus, First Division: upcoming and recently played.
Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.