Both teams to score
Yes56%
ours 1.79
No44%
ours 2.26
All matches
—
Apollon Limassol — Paphos, First Division
Cyprus, First Division
Apollon Limassol
2.8DDWDL
Paphos
3.1LWDWW
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
36%25%39%
Apollon Limassol36%Draw25%Paphos39%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Apollon Limassol2.76—
XDraw4.00—
2Paphos2.59—
our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricApollon LimassolPaphosCombined
Goals scored0.830.000.83
Conceded0.500.330.83
Corners7.09.08.0
Cards2.04.06.0
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
Apollon LimassolPaphos
Apollon Limassol 36%, Paphos FC 39%. The safest is “No draw” at 75%.
Apollon Limassol 36%Draw 25%Paphos FC 39%
1st half
32 · 36 · 32
2nd half
28 · 38 · 34
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
First half total: Over 0.5
72%
Two more scenarios — with a subscription
Form and context
Apollon Limassol
- homeAPOEL2:2
- awayOmonia0:0
- homeAnorthosis Famagusta3:1
- awayAris Limassol2:2
- homeBrann2:4
Paphos
- homeAEL Limassol0:2
- awayAEK Larnaca1:0
- homeOlympiakos Nicosia0:0
- awayKarmiotissa3:0
- homeDinamo Tirana4:2
Head to head
- 05/03/26First Division2:1
- 03/22/26First Division1:1
- 01/04/26First Division2:1
- 09/13/25First Division1:0
- 04/22/25First Division0:2
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
2
AEL Limassol43016:79
AEL Limassol43016:793
Omonia42208:28
Omonia42208:284Paphos42114:27
Paphos42114:275Apollon Limassol41307:56
Apollon Limassol41307:566
Omonia Aradippou41304:36
Omonia Aradippou41304:367
Omonia 29 Maiou41219:75
Omonia 29 Maiou41219:75Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with a subscription
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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.