All matches

AEK Larnaca — AC Omonia Nicosia, First Division

Cyprus, First Division

AEK Larnaca
3.1WLWWW
—
AC Omonia Nicosia
3.8WWDWD
Outcome probability
232452
AEK Larnaca23%Draw24%AC Omonia Nicosia52%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1AEK Larnaca23%4.27—
XDraw24%4.11—
2AC Omonia Nicosia52%1.91—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes51%

ours 1.95

No49%

ours 2.06

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricAEK LarnacaAC Omonia NicosiaCombined
Goals scored1.500.832.33
Conceded0.670.170.84
Corners8.513.511.0
Cards1.51.02.5
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    AEK LarnacaAC Omonia Nicosia
    1Table position3
    1Matches in 14 days3
    8Days of rest3.9
    51.30%Possession57.00%
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    AC Omonia Nicosia travel as favourites: despite playing away, a win is rated at 52%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

AEK Larnaca

  • awayALS Omonia 29is Maiou2:1
  • homePaphos FC0:1
  • awayNea Salamis Famagusta4:1
  • homeAPOEL FC3:1
  • awayBeitar Jerusalem FC3:2

AC Omonia Nicosia

  • homeDigenis Ypsonas4:1
  • homeReal Club Celta de Vigo1:0
  • homeApollon Limassol0:0
  • awayAris FC Limassol4:1
  • homeOmonia FC Aradippou0:0

Head to head

  • 05/10/26First Division1:1
  • 04/14/26First Division0:2
  • 12/15/25First Division1:1
  • 09/17/25First Division0:1
  • 04/22/25First Division1:1

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1AEK Larnaca43019:49
2AEL Limassol43016:79
3AC Omonia Nicosia42208:28
4Paphos FC42114:27
5Apollon Limassol41307:56

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.