Both teams to score
Yes55%
ours 1.83
No45%
ours 2.20
All matches
—
Omonia — AEL Limassol, First Division
Cyprus, First Division
Omonia
3.8WWDWD
AEL Limassol
1.8WWLWW
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
79%15%
Omonia79%Draw15%AEL Limassol6%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Omonia1.27—
XDraw6.52—
2AEL Limassol16.72—
our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricOmoniaAEL LimassolCombined
Goals scored0.670.671.34
Conceded0.171.171.34
Corners13.05.39.2
Cards2.03.05.0
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
OmoniaAEL Limassol
AC Omonia Nicosia 79%, AEL Limassol 6%. The safest is “AC Omonia Nicosia or draw” at 92%.
AC Omonia Nicosia 79%Draw 15%AEL Limassol 6%
1st half
55 · 31 · 15
2nd half
52 · 31 · 17
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Total goals: Over 2.5
71%
Two more scenarios — with a subscription
Form and context
Omonia
- homeDigenis Ypsonas4:1
- homeCelta Vigo1:0
- homeApollon Limassol0:0
- awayAris Limassol4:1
- homeOmonia Aradippou0:0
AEL Limassol
- awayPaphos2:0
- homeNea Salamis Famagusta2:1
- awayAPOEL0:6
- homeAnorthosis Famagusta2:0
- awayAkritas Chloraka2:1
Head to head
- 01/09/26First Division2:0
- 09/22/25First Division5:0
- 01/12/25First Division4:0
- 09/27/24First Division3:1
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1
AEK Larnaca43019:49
AEK Larnaca43019:492AEL Limassol43016:79
AEL Limassol43016:793Omonia42208:28
Omonia42208:284
Paphos42114:27
Paphos42114:275
Apollon Limassol41307:56
Apollon Limassol41307:56Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with a subscription
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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.