All matches

AEL Limassol — Aris Limassol, First Division

Cyprus, First Division

AEL Limassol
1.8WWLWW
—
Aris Limassol
2.5DWLDL
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Outcome probability
30%24%46%
AEL Limassol30%Draw24%Aris Limassol46%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1AEL Limassol30%3.35—
XDraw24%4.19—
2Aris Limassol46%2.16—

our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes57%

ours 1.76

No43%

ours 2.31

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricAEL LimassolAris LimassolCombined
Goals scored1.000.671.67
Conceded1.171.002.17
Corners6.87.87.3
Cards2.83.56.3
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.

AEL LimassolAris Limassol

AEL Limassol 30%, Aris FC Limassol 46%. The safest is “No draw” at 76%.

AEL Limassol 30%Draw 24%Aris FC Limassol 46%
1st half
31 · 36 · 33
2nd half
25 · 35 · 40
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

First half total: Over 0.5

71%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

AEL Limassol

  • awayPaphos2:0
  • homeNea Salamis Famagusta2:1
  • awayAPOEL0:6
  • homeAnorthosis Famagusta2:0
  • awayAkritas Chloraka2:1

Aris Limassol

  • homeKarmiotissa0:0
  • awayDigenis Ypsonas1:0
  • homeOmonia1:4
  • homeApollon Limassol2:2
  • homeAEK Larnaca3:4

Head to head

  • 02/01/26First Division2:1
  • 10/19/25First Division0:4
  • 02/23/25First Division0:4
  • 11/24/24First Division0:3

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1AEK Larnaca43019:49
2AEL Limassol43016:79
3Omonia42208:28
4Paphos42114:27
5Apollon Limassol41307:56
6Omonia Aradippou41304:36
7Omonia 29 Maiou41219:75
8Aris Limassol41214:65
9APOEL411210:74
10Olympiakos Nicosia40407:74

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.