All matches

FK Sumqayıt — Araz FK, Premyer Liqası

Azerbaijan, Premyer Liqası

FK Sumqayıt
1.0DDLLL
—
Araz FK
1.8LDLLL
Outcome probability
312940
FK Sumqayıt31%Draw29%Araz FK40%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1FK Sumqayıt31%3.19—
XDraw29%3.46—
2Araz FK40%2.52—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes52%

ours 1.91

No48%

ours 2.10

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricFK SumqayıtAraz FKCombined
Goals scored0.670.831.50
Conceded1.332.173.50
Corners8.411.09.7
Cards2.42.24.6
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    FK SumqayıtAraz FK
    5.4Days of rest6.5
    50.40%Possession43.80%
    11Table position12
    1Matches in 14 days1
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    Away from home, Araz FK still look stronger — an away win is rated at 40%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

First half total: Under 1.5

72%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

FK Sumqayıt

  • awayFK Kapaz1:1
  • homeFC İnter Bakı1:1
  • awayTuran-T IK1:2
  • homeQarabağ Ağdam FK0:1
  • homeNeftçi PFC Bakı1:3

Araz FK

  • awayFC İnter Bakı1:2
  • homeTuran-T IK2:2
  • awayQarabağ Ağdam FK2:3
  • homeSabah FK0:1
  • awayNeftçi PFC Bakı0:5

Head to head

  • 05/09/26Premyer Liqası2:1
  • 02/15/26Premyer Liqası0:1
  • 11/02/25Premyer Liqası3:2
  • 04/07/25Premyer Liqası0:2
  • 02/01/25Premyer Liqası0:0

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
9FK Qabala61142:74
10FK Safa61052:113
11FK Sumqayıt50234:82
12Araz FK60245:132

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.