All matches

Willem II — SC Cambuur Leeuwarden, Eredivisie

Netherlands, Eredivisie

Willem II
1.6LLDLD
—
SC Cambuur Leeuwarden
2.7DWDLL
Outcome probability
232750
Willem II23%Draw27%SC Cambuur Leeuwarden50%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Willem II23%4.42—
XDraw27%3.69—
2SC Cambuur Leeuwarden50%1.99—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes54%

ours 1.85

No46%

ours 2.18

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricWillem IISC Cambuur LeeuwardenCombined
Goals scored0.331.171.50
Conceded1.671.172.84
Corners12.59.010.8
Cards1.52.33.8
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    Willem IISC Cambuur Leeuwarden
    18Table position14
    6.9Days of rest6.2
    42.30%Possession42.00%
    2Matches in 14 days2
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    Away from home, SC Cambuur Leeuwarden still look stronger — an away win is rated at 50%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Total goals: Under 3.5

72%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Willem II

  • homeFortuna Sittard0:1
  • awayAFC Ajax1:5
  • awayAlkmaar Zaanstreek1:1
  • homeSBV Excelsior0:3
  • homeSC Heerenveen2:2

SC Cambuur Leeuwarden

  • awayHFC ADO Den Haag1:1
  • homeNijmegen Eendracht Combinatie3:0
  • awaySC Telstar2:2
  • homeFC Twente1:4
  • homeFeyenoord Rotterdam2:5

Head to head

  • 12/12/25Eerste Divisie0:1
  • 09/06/25Eerste Divisie2:2

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
12Sparta Rotterdam712410:175
13SC Telstar71245:125
14SC Cambuur Leeuwarden712410:195
15FC Utrecht712411:245
16PEC Zwolle71156:204
17HFC ADO Den Haag70257:172
18Willem II70256:202

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.