All matches

PEC Zwolle — SC Cambuur Leeuwarden, Eredivisie

Netherlands, Eredivisie

PEC Zwolle
1.4LLDLW
—
SC Cambuur Leeuwarden
2.7DWDLL
Outcome probability
342937
PEC Zwolle34%Draw29%SC Cambuur Leeuwarden37%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1PEC Zwolle34%2.96—
XDraw29%3.48—
2SC Cambuur Leeuwarden37%2.67—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes62%

ours 1.62

No38%

ours 2.61

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricPEC ZwolleSC Cambuur LeeuwardenCombined
Goals scored1.001.672.67
Conceded3.002.505.50
Corners11.89.210.5
Cards1.21.83.0
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    PEC ZwolleSC Cambuur Leeuwarden
    16Table position14
    41.70%Possession46.20%
    14Days of rest14
    0Matches in 14 days0
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    SC Cambuur Leeuwarden travel as favourites: despite playing away, a win is rated at 37%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Total corners: Over 7.5

69%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

PEC Zwolle

  • awayFC Groningen0:3
  • homeFeyenoord Rotterdam0:7
  • awaySparta Rotterdam2:2
  • homeNijmegen Eendracht Combinatie1:3
  • awaySC Heerenveen2:0

SC Cambuur Leeuwarden

  • awayHFC ADO Den Haag1:1
  • homeNijmegen Eendracht Combinatie3:0
  • awaySC Telstar2:2
  • homeFC Twente1:4
  • homeFeyenoord Rotterdam2:5

Head to head

No head-to-head matches on record.

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
12Sparta Rotterdam712410:175
13SC Telstar71245:125
14SC Cambuur Leeuwarden712410:195
15FC Utrecht712411:245
16PEC Zwolle71156:204
17HFC ADO Den Haag70257:172
18Willem II70256:202

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.