Sparta Rotterdam — Willem II, Eredivisie

Netherlands, EredivisieOctober 17 at 07:00 PM

Sparta Rotterdam

1.5LLDLD

—

Willem II

1.6LLDLD

Outcome probability

602416

Sparta Rotterdam60%Draw24%Willem II16%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1Sparta Rotterdam60%1.68—

XDraw24%4.16—

2Willem II16%6.13—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes49%

ours 2.05

No51%

ours 1.95

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricSparta RotterdamWillem IICombined

Goals scored1.170.671.84

Conceded2.502.004.50

Corners12.813.213.0

Cards0.81.22.0

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
Sparta RotterdamWillem II
12Table position18
47.60%Possession41.60%
7.2Days of rest6.4
1Matches in 14 days1
2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
Home advantage and current form favour Sparta Rotterdam: a home win is rated at 60%.
Most likely scorelines:…
3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pick
Risky pick
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