All matches

FC Utrecht — Willem II, Eredivisie

Netherlands, Eredivisie

FC Utrecht
2.3LWDLD
—
Willem II
1.6LLDLD
Outcome probability
7516
FC Utrecht75%Draw16%Willem II9%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1FC Utrecht75%1.33—
XDraw16%6.28—
2Willem II9%11.40—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes52%

ours 1.93

No48%

ours 2.07

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricFC UtrechtWillem IICombined
Goals scored1.670.832.50
Conceded3.672.676.34
Corners10.811.511.2
Cards2.21.23.3
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    FC UtrechtWillem II
    15Table position18
    44.20%Possession40.00%
    14Days of rest14
    0Matches in 14 days0
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    FC Utrecht look the favourite on home turf and current form — a home win is rated at 75%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Total corners: Under 12.5

72%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

FC Utrecht

  • awayFeyenoord Rotterdam0:5
  • awaySBV Excelsior2:1
  • homeGo Ahead Eagles3:3
  • homePSV Eindhoven1:6
  • awaySparta Rotterdam3:3

Willem II

  • homeFortuna Sittard0:1
  • awayAFC Ajax1:5
  • awayAlkmaar Zaanstreek1:1
  • homeSBV Excelsior0:3
  • homeSC Heerenveen2:2

Head to head

  • 03/09/25Eredivisie3:2
  • 09/21/24Eredivisie3:2

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
13SC Telstar71245:125
14SC Cambuur Leeuwarden712410:195
15FC Utrecht712411:245
16PEC Zwolle71156:204
17HFC ADO Den Haag70257:172
18Willem II70256:202

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.