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AFC Ajax 5:1 Willem II, Eredivisie

Netherlands, EredivisieMatch finished

AFC Ajax
3.3DWWLW
5:1HT 2:0
Willem II
1.6LLDLD
Pre-match forecastpublished
8014
AFC Ajax80%Draw14%Willem II6%

Match stats

How the match went in numbers.

3.93xG1.02
70Possession, %30
33Shots10
12Shots on target4
14Corners2
0Yellow cards0
0Red cards0
6Fouls3
3Offsides4

How the forecast did

In each market the forecast is one outcome: the most likely one before kick-off.

2 of 3
Main markets landedresult, half, totals, both to score
All forecast markets: landed 76 of 100
  • Match result Landed
    AFC Ajax80%
  • Total goals Landed
    Over 2.563%
  • Both teams to score Missed
    No57%

    Actual: Yes — we had 43%

The bar is our pre-match probability. The other outcomes in a market are not picks but the probability split: one of home, draw, away always happens.

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1AFC Ajax80%1.25—
XDraw14%7.00—
2Willem II6%18.05—

Form and context

AFC Ajax

  • homeSBV Excelsior2:2
  • homeWillem II5:1
  • awayFortuna Sittard5:1
  • homePSV Eindhoven1:3
  • awaySC Telstar4:0

Willem II

  • homeFortuna Sittard0:1
  • awayAFC Ajax1:5
  • awayAlkmaar Zaanstreek1:1
  • homeSBV Excelsior0:3
  • homeSC Heerenveen2:2

Head to head

  • 09/15/26Eredivisie5:1
  • 04/13/25Eredivisie2:1
  • 10/27/24Eredivisie1:0

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
3PSV Eindhoven751124:1016
4FC Twente751115:716
5AFC Ajax742121:914
6Fortuna Sittard741213:1413
7SBV Excelsior732215:911
8FC Groningen732215:1311
9Go Ahead Eagles724116:1410
10SC Heerenveen723211:99
11Nijmegen Eendracht Combinatie722312:138
12Sparta Rotterdam712410:175
13SC Telstar71245:125
14SC Cambuur Leeuwarden712410:195
15FC Utrecht712411:245
16PEC Zwolle71156:204
17HFC ADO Den Haag70257:172
18Willem II70256:202

Full breakdown

Every market of the forecast published before the match.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.