Spain vs Croatia: result 4:1

UEFA Nations League29 September at 18:45 · UTCMatch finished

Final score 4:1. Before kick-off VARStats gave: Spain 56%, Croatia 23%, draw 21%.

Spain

2.7WWWWW

4:1HT 2:1

Croatia

1.9WLWWL

Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Pre-match forecastpublished 29 September at 16:19

56%21%23%

SpainPrice 1.2756%DrawPrice 7.0521%CroatiaPrice 11.6023%

Line-upsThe data provider has not sent line-ups for this match.

Match stats

How the match went in numbers.

1.97xG0.65

64Possession, %36

16Shots5

7Shots on target2

6Corners2

1Yellow cards4

0Red cards0

9Fouls10

5Offsides0

How the forecast did

In each forecast type the prediction is one outcome: the most likely one before kick-off. After the final whistle, the model’s Premium picks are open too.

15 of 18

Main predictions landedone model pick in each forecast type

All forecast types: landed 201 of 255void — 1

Open to everyone before the match

Match result Landed
Spain56%
Total goals Landed
Over 2.558%
Both teams to score Landed
Yes57%

From Premium — open after the final whistle12 of 15 came true

First half resultSpain 65%✓
Goal in both halvesYes 68%✓
Double chanceSpain or Croatia 79%✓
Handicap (0)Spain 71%✓
HandicapSpain -0.5 56%✓
Home team goalsOver 1.5 57%✓
Away team goalsOver 0.5 68%✓
Total cornersUnder 10.5 51%✓
Home cornersUnder 7.5 53%✓
Away cornersOver 2.5 58%✕
Total cardsOver 4.5 51%✓
Home cardsOver 1.5 53%✕
Away cardsOver 2.5 56%✓
Total foulsOver 18.5 54%✓
Total shots on targetOver 10.5 61%✕

Percentages are our pre-match probability. Each Premium forecast type shows one model pick: the most likely outcome, and for totals and handicaps the threshold where the chances are closest to 50/50. Before kick-off only subscribers saw them; after the final whistle they are open to everyone, so anyone can check how they did.