UEFA Nations League

SpainВВВВВ
—
CroatiaПВВПВ
1Spain66%model1.51bookmaker1.32
XDraw17%model5.75bookmaker5.56
2Croatia16%model6.16bookmaker10.30

Goals

Corners

Cards

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

xG

Shots

Shots on target

calculated at 21:06, 214 мс

Outcome

Spain66%
Draw17%
Croatia16%

Corners

Subscribers only

Total 2.5

Subscribers only

Both teams to score

Subscribers only

Model vs bookmaker value

Where the model disagrees with the bookmaker most.

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Model take on Spain vs Croatia

Built from the numbers: expected goals, form, rest, absences and referee records.

Home advantage and current form favour Spain: a home win is rated at 66%.

Most likely scorelines:…

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What drives the numbers

Form, rest, fixture load and league position

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Recent matches

Spain

WWWWW
  • homeArgentina1:0
  • awayFrance2:0
  • homeBelgium2:1
  • awayPortugal1:0
  • homeAustria3:0

Croatia

LWWLW
  • awayPortugal1:2
  • homeGhana2:1
  • awayPanama1:0
  • awayEngland2:4
  • awayMontenegro3:2

Head to head — score from the perspective of Spain

  • 06/18/23away · UEFA Nations League0:0D

League table

The table appears once a few rounds have been played.

Three scenarios

One pick from each odds range

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Markets in detail

Probabilities are a statistical estimate from past matches, not a prediction of the result.

Испания vs Хорватия: prediction and stats — VARstats